A new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has forecasted that global leisure travel will triple in value, reaching $15 trillion by 2040, up from approximately $5 trillion today. The report, titled “Unpacking the $15 Trillion Opportunity in Leisure Travel”, identifies demographic shifts, rising incomes in emerging markets, and digital transformation as core drivers of this explosive growth, with ripple effects set to reshape the global food and hospitality sectors.
For restaurant operators across the world, this is a wake-up call to reimagine growth strategies around tourism-driven dining, experience-led menus, and cross-border brand expansion.
Domestic and Regional Travel to Drive Demand
According to BCG’s findings, domestic leisure travel is expected to account for the lion’s share of this growth, ballooning to nearly $12 trillion. Regional and short-haul trips will triple to $2 trillion, while international leisure travel will rise more modestly to $1.4 trillion by 2040.
This shift in travel preferences underscores a growing trend: travelers, especially in emerging economies, are taking more frequent trips closer to home. For restaurants, this means consistent, year-round demand from short-term leisure tourists, not just seasonal spikes.
“This isn’t about more travel, it’s about new kinds of travelers,” said Christina Mühlenbein, Managing Director and Partner at BCG. “The way people plan, book, and experience leisure is being reshaped by digital platforms and shifting global demographics.”
Gen-Z, AI, and Bleisure Travel Are Redefining Consumer Behavior
BCG’s report, based on surveys with 5,000 travelers across 11 countries and deep market data from 68 global destinations, highlights several key behavioral trends:
- Millennials and Gen-Z will account for over 50% of global leisure travel spend by 2040.
- Solo travel is rising sharply, with participation growing from 18% to 39%.
- In emerging markets like India and Vietnam, over 70% of travelers now combine business with leisure (bleisure).
- AI is playing a major role in how travel decisions are made — with over 59% of Indian travelers already using AI for planning and booking.
For the restaurant industry, this means adapting to an increasingly digitally savvy and experience-oriented diner, one who values storytelling, personalization, and convenience just as much as cuisine.
A $15T Demand Engine
Restaurants, especially those in tourist-centric cities or near cultural and recreational hotspots, stand to benefit enormously from this uptick in leisure travel. But capitalizing on this opportunity will require more than just being in the right place.
From airport quick-service counters to fine dining concepts in heritage districts, F&B brands will need to focus on:
- Omnichannel customer journeys: AI-powered discovery, dynamic pricing, and multilingual menus.
- Hyper-local sourcing and storytelling: Appealing to travelers seeking “authentic” and “local-first” dining.
- Tech-first service operations: Seamless integration of POS, order management, feedback, and mobile pay to meet expectations of high-speed convenience.
Asia Leading the Way
Asia Pacific is projected to account for nearly 50% of global leisure travelers by 2040, according to the report, with countries like India, China, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam emerging as dominant players in outbound and domestic travel markets.
India, in particular, presents a dual opportunity for restaurants:
- Inbound tourism is driving demand for regional Indian cuisine, elevated street food concepts, and experience-first dining.
- Outbound Indian travelers are fueling the expansion of homegrown brands into Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and beyond.
Experience is the New Luxury
As BCG highlights, food remains the most valued experience among global leisure travelers. For restaurants, the next 15 years could be defined not by the number of seats filled, but by how well they adapt to this new traveler mindset: fast, flexible, and flavor-forward.
The future of global travel is not just airports and hotels, it’s also menus, kitchen lines, and the stories behind every dish. The $15 trillion travel boom is already on the move. The restaurant industry must keep pace.
